|
| | ||
| ||||
| ||||
| ||||
| HOME | ABOUT US | CONTACT US | SUBSCRIBE | NEWSSTAND LOCATIONS | ||||
| ||||
|
|
| | |
Taylor sees possible drought in 2006 Thursday, December 15, 2005
Agri News staff writer
NORTHWOOD, Iowa -- Dry weather is likely to reduce crop yields in 2006, but Elwynn Taylor, Iowa State University Extension climatologist, isn't ready to forecast a drought.
"I may talk differently by the end of January,'' Taylor said.
Several indicators Taylor watches indicate a dry season, he said at last week's Worth County Corn and Soybean Clinic.
Serious Corn Belt drought has followed an apparent 19-year wet-dry cycle for more than 200 years.
The cycle suggests that risk of drought is greater during 2005 to 2010 than it was the last 12 years. Historically, there are two serious Corn Belt droughts during the six years, a one in three risk of drought for any given year. This is compared with the previous 12 years when the historical drought risk was 1 in 12.
Another indicator to watch is the presence of El Nino or La Nina. La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the central eastern Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Nino, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures. In La Nina years there is a 70 percent chance of a below trend line yield due to dry weather. The worst droughts have occurred during La Nina years.
Ocean temperatures are cooling. Taylor said by mid-January, he'll know with more certainty if La Nina has established itself.
"Right now it's looking like it's moving toward La Nina,'' Taylor said.
Another factor, warm sea surface temperature north of Hawaii, could indicate a return to drought in the High Plains and Mountain West stretching as far east as Interstate 35.
Farmers should plan on a possible market rally in February or March based on the winter turning dry January through April, Taylor said. It could be the rally that ushers in a drought year, or it could be an overreaction to a year that actually won't be that bad.
This is a good year for farmers to select seed that is a little more tolerant of drought if that doesn't sacrifice anything in terms of yield in a normal year, Taylor said. Also, plant toward the lower end of the recommended population. |
| | |
| |
Copyright 2009 Agri News
All Rights Reserved
