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Soybean rust could change industry Monday, November 15, 2004
Agri News staff writer
Results are expected this week on samples soybean rust assessment teams took in Louisiana last week.
Four teams of officials from government and academia descended on the state last week after an announcement that soybean rust had been found. They searched a 100-mile radius of Baton Rouge, La., Nov. 11 looking for signs of Asian soybean rust and took 65 samples.
Nine samples were taken from kudzu, an invasive plant, and 56 samples from soybean plants, according to the Louisiana State University AgCenter. All the kudzu samples were negative. Five soybean samples were positive, with confirmation expected this week.
The teams surveyed roughly 10,000 square miles in 14 Louisiana parishes and one Mississippi county.
The mainland United States is one of the last soybean growing regions of the world to be infected by Asian soybean rust, said Mike Schommer, Minnesota Department of Agriculture communications director.
Over the past two years the agriculture department, the University of Minnesota and its Extension Service and the soybean growers associations have been preparing for the discovery of rust.
In September a soybean rust training exercise was held at UMore Park in Rosemount, Minn., Schommer said. Disease identification and ways to minimize its spread were practiced.
It's unlikely the disease made it undetected to Minnesota during the last growing season and it might -- or might not -- be years before soybean rust makes it way this far north.
"The fungus that causes soybean rust is not believed to be hardy enough to survive harsh Minnesota winters," Schommer said.
Models show soybean rust will be a factor in Minnesota 50 percent of years or less, said Seth Naeve, University of Minnesota Extension soybean agronomist. That same model shows rust occurring every year in Ohio and Indiana.
The fungal disease has the potential to change soybean production in the United States, Naeve said.
USDA estimates economic losses to producers could range from $640 million to $1.3 billion in the first year of infestation. Annual losses after establishment of the disease could range from $240 million to $2.4 billion.
Soybean rust reduces yields by an estimated 50 percent to 70 percent and in some cases by 100 percent, Naeve said.
He estimates fungicide will cost $25 per acre, with two applications per year required in many cases in the upper Midwest, compared to four applications in Brazil. If all 7 million acres of soybeans grown in Minnesota were sprayed twice, it would cost $350 million, Naeve said. Yield losses of 50 percent would cost about $500 in Minnesota, where soybeans are a $1 billion crop.
There is no biological way to control soybean rust, which moves on the wind, so organic producers are in trouble, Naeve said.
There could be good news for Minnesota organic producers. Because the state should be infected with rust fewer years than other states, Minnesota producers might be able to take advantage of higher premiums. On the other hand, rust could add more volatility to the organic soybean market.
The university will be educating producers on scouting soybean rust and will be training fungicide applicators, Naeve said. First detectors will be trained in each county as a place to submit suspect samples.
The state agriculture department will also be helping to educate soybean growers. The department has a trade show booth filled with information about soybean rust that will be going to meetings throughout the winter, Schommer said. |
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