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Taylor watches drought cycle with a wary eye Tuesday, September 19, 2006
Agri News staff writer
KANAWHA, Iowa -- Iowa State University Extension climatologist Elwynn Taylor said crop yields will average well above trend line this fall, but there are mixed indicators for next year's crop.
Taylor spoke at the recent 75th anniversary of ISU's Northern Research and Demonstration Farm at Kanawha.
"People asked me today, 'How come you were so wrong about the weather this year,' " Taylor said. "A couple of interesting things have happened."
The year started with La Nina, the conditions associated with the worst droughts.
"The 2006 crop season started going dry in spring," Taylor said. "There was no rain in June and July in the Western half of the Corn Belt. About the time people were asking if they were going to completely lose their crop, El Nino conditions were forming faster than we've ever seen them form in recorded history."
The weather turned cool and it started to rain.
"Now it's hard to find a place in the Corn Belt that doesn't have sufficient moisture," Taylor said.
Once an El Nino establishes itself, it generally stays around 14 months.
Does that mean good crop conditions in 2007? It's still too early to tell, but Taylor is watching several factors, and the outlook is mixed.
Subsoil moisture was generally good in early 2006 but limited rainfall damaged western Corn Belt crops that weren't well rooted. Temperatures and precipitation patterns shifted to favorable by August.
The 19-year drought cycle is in the higher risk six years right now, Taylor said.
Tree-ring studies indicate that the longest drought-free period in the central United States was 23 years, Taylor said. The last serious Midwest drought was 1988. The overall risk of widespread Corn Belt drought in high risk years is 34 percent, and conditions tend to be most serious during La Nina.
Hurricanes and other tropical storms set records in the Atlantic in 2005.
"This may be a wake-up call to what the next 20 years will bring," Taylor said. "There is some indication that the number of tropical Atlantic storms is trending upward, but year-to-year variability of numbers and severity is substantial." |
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