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Taylor says summer weather just about perfect for crops Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Agri News staff writer
NASHUA, Iowa -- This summer's forecast, which calls for cooler than normal temperatures east of the Continental Divide and normal moisture couldn't be better for the Corn Belt, says Elwynn Taylor, Iowa State University Extension climatologist.
El Nino is a possibility by mid-August. That means oppressively high temperatures will be avoided and crops will flourish, Taylor told farmers at last week's field day at ISU's Northeast Research Center near Nashua.
Taylor said the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which measures the temperature of ocean waters near Hawaii, shows that the water is cooling. During warming periods, it brings drought to Colorado and dry weather to Nebraska and western Iowa. Cooling periods bring more normal weather to those areas.
El Nino occurs when the Pacific waters off the coast of Peru warm. That brings cooler summer temperatures in the Corn Belt. The most recent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center forecast says conditions are favorable to move to El Nino this summer. Conditions have moved away from La Nina, which can cause oppressively high temperatures and drought in the Corn Belt.
Up until now, temperatures have been cooler than normal with the area behind in growing degree days, but Taylor said it's nothing serious. As of June 16, Nashua was 56 growing degree days behind normal.
The eight- to 14-day forecast calls for warmer than usual temperatures and near normal precipitation, Taylor said. There is plenty of moisture coming north from the Gulf of Mexico, but much less than a year ago when ongoing heavy rains caused flooding throughout Iowa.
"July's forecast is nice, cooler temperatures and normal precipitation," Taylor said. "July, August and September are the same thing -- cooler than usual with normal precipitation. We couldn't have a better forecast for the crops than that. That is what brought us our record high yields in 1992, 1994 and 2004, warmer than usual west of the Continental Divide, cooler than usual to the east."
Taylor said the likely national average corn yield is 155 bushels per acre.
Taylor's weather updates can be found on Twitter at http://twitter.com/elwynntaylor. |
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