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Subsoil moisture helping crops through dry time Tuesday, July 11, 2006
Agri News staff writer
DES MOINES -- Thanks to abundant rainfall in March and April, crops have been able to draw on soil moisture reserves during May and June when there was little rain.
"We had a relatively wet March and April that put soil moisture in good condition almost everywhere,'' said Harry Hillaker, state climatologist with the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship. "But since April it's been a very different story. Most places have been unusually dry in May and June and the first part of July. It's been a little on the warm side since May 1, but not much."
Hillaker said crops are starting to deplete soil moisture reserves and show stress.
"Corns and beans are growing rapidly and need a lot of water," Hillaker said. "It will go downhill pretty quickly unless we get some additional rainfall pretty soon."
The one exception is the far northeast corner of the state. Precipitation there has been near normal.
The driest area is the western third of the state. Northwest Iowa was driest during May, and west central Iowa was the driest during June. The southern third of the state is dealing with lingering problems from last summer's drought.
Iowa State University Extension climatologist Elwynn Taylor said that the crop, as a big picture, looks very good as of the first week in July.
"However, rain has been erratic and on the scant side the past eight weeks, and temperature has shifted from four hot weeks to four cool to five warm and now a cool week, with July being the month that often most significantly impacts the corn crop," Taylor said.
If this week and the next are hot and dry, the chance of an above average crop will become slim.
"But the chance of cool with normal precipitation is also there, and that could lead to a super crop," Taylor said. "Things are in a place to fall either way, and by this time of year that is not often so. Usually we can see a strong trend by now."
Hillaker said historically Iowa's summer weather is persistent.
"The way it is at the start of summer is what we keep for the rest of the summer,'' he said. "The fact that we started drier and warmer than normal favors more of the same. Models show that the first half of July is likely to be warmer and drier than normal."
Just how crops will fare is hard to say, Hillaker said. If rains come at just the right time and it isn't too hot during pollination, yields might be OK.
"The worst case would be if was particularly dry and hot when pollination takes place," Hillaker said.
Crops north of the border are also in need of rainfall.
If rain falls this week, it could come to be known as a million dollar rain across Minnesota.
If, however, the state's crops go another week without any much-needed rainfall, University of Minnesota Extension climatologist Mark Seeley said he's "afraid we're going to have to pay the piper." |
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